Global News ｜ The three major US stock indexes are mixed, and the probability of the Fed’s interest rate cut rises to 82.5%

[US stock index]

On Wednesday, November 13th, US Eastern Time, the three major US stock indexes were mixed, among which the S&P 500 index rose 0.02% to 5985.38 points. The Dow Jones index rose 0.11% to 43,958.19 points; The Nasdaq index fell 0.26% to 19,230.72.

American debt

On November 13th, the benchmark 10-year US bond yield was 4.44%, and the 2-year US bond yield, which is most sensitive to the Fed’s policy interest rate, was 4.27%.

[Hot American stocks]

Among popular US stocks, NVIDIA fell 1.36%, Apple rose 0.40%, Microsoft rose 0.51%, Amazon rose 2.48%, Google C fell 1.54%, Google A fell 1.51%, Meta fell 0.82%, Tesla rose 0.53%, TSMC fell 2.63%, AMD fell 3.02% and Intel rose 3.15.

[global index]

[China index]

On November 12th, overnight Hang Seng Technology Index futures fell by 4.04%, Nasdaq China Jinlong Index fell by 4.45%, and FTSE China A50 Index fell by 1.06%.

[China Stock Exchange]

In terms of popular Chinese stocks, Tencent Holdings (Hong Kong stocks) rose 0.00%, Alibaba rose 0.23%, Pinduoduo fell 0.34%, Netease fell 2.79%, Ctrip fell 3.03%, Baidu fell 0.40%, LI fell 1.15%, Xpeng Motors fell 2.16% and Weilai rose 0.87%.

[foreign exchange commodities]

[Global News]

The probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December rises to 82.5%.

According to CME’s "Fed Watch", the probability that the Fed will keep the current interest rate unchanged by December is 17.5%, and the cumulative probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 82.5%. The probability of keeping the current interest rate unchanged by January next year is 11.9%, the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 61.7%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 26.5%.

OpenAI shares AI data center construction plan with US government, calling for expanding energy capacity.

OpenAI has shared information with US government officials about how to build an artificial intelligence (AI) data center, which is expected to consume 5 GW of electricity (which will be five times larger than the data center that the company is currently developing). This idea seems to be similar to Stargate, which is the code name of a $100 billion supercomputing data center that OpenAI discussed with its main supporter Microsoft. (Cailian)

Federal Reserve Moussalem: The market currently believes that the Fed may not cut interest rates significantly.

Federal Reserve Moussalem said that it is still too hasty to include Trump’s ruling prospect in December. As bond yields rise, the market also feels higher inflation risks, and there are signs that the market currently believes that the Fed may not cut interest rates significantly.

Federal Reserve Moussalem: There may be room for the policy to gradually relax to neutral interest rates.

Federal Reserve Moussalem said that there may be room for the policy to gradually relax to neutral interest rates, and there may be stronger data (at work) behind the rise in the term premium of national debt. Data since the last policy meeting show that the economy may be much stronger than expected. The inflation data is also strong, but it has not changed the view that the policy is developing in a neutral direction. The latest consumer price index data is "in line with expectations", but I hope to see the data continue to decline on a three-month basis. It is too hasty to include the prospect of Trump’s administration in December. Economic activity and data have become stronger, bringing the risk of inflation rebound.

Federal Reserve Moussalem: It is estimated that the inflation rate will approach 2% in 12-24 months.

Federal Reserve Moussalem said that the inflation rate is expected to approach 2% in 12-24 months; Monetary policy is in a tight state, but the overall financial environment is supportive of economic activities.

NVIDIA plans to cooperate with leading Japanese cloud computing companies such as GMO Internet Group and SAKURA Internet.

NVIDIA plans to develop a national AI infrastructure network by cooperating with leading Japanese cloud computing enterprises such as GMO Internet Group and SAKURA Internet. (Cailian)

Federal Reserve Musalem: In the case of inflation rate higher than 2%, monetary policy will remain "moderately tight"

Federal Reserve Musalem said that monetary policy will remain "moderately tight" when the inflation rate is higher than 2%. If inflation continues to fall, it is appropriate to cut interest rates further. The labor market is still in the range of full employment, and the strong economy is expected to achieve a "steady" performance in the fourth quarter. The economic growth in the United States is extensive, mainly driven by consumption, income growth, productivity, supportive financial conditions and wealth effects.

After the latest US CPI data is released, Citigroup still expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in December.

After the US CPI report in October met expectations and inflationary pressure generally eased, Citigroup economists still believe that the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points in December. "Although the details are still unstable and not so’ normal’, the easing of salary pressure, the decline of short-term inflation expectations, and the continued pressure of high interest rates on housing demand and prices should reassure Fed officials about the slowdown in inflation," Veronica Clark and Andrew Hollenhorst wrote in a report on Wednesday. Citigroup’s basic forecast is still to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in December.

Meta Platforms will launch advertisements on short video platform Threads in early 2025.

Meta Platforms will launch advertisements on short video platform Threads in early 2025.

Google CEO: The first intercontinental submarine cable connecting the Asia-Pacific region with South America and Australia with Africa is under construction.

Google CEO said that the first intercontinental submarine cable connecting the Asia-Pacific region with South America and Australia with Africa is being built.