How is the implementation of climate commitment actions in countries near the global climate summit？
In 2023, frequent extreme weather and climate events once again left a deep impression on people. In China, sandstorms in the northwest, droughts in the southwest, extreme rainstorms in North China and typhoons in South China have all brought rare disasters in recent years. On a global scale, forest fires in Canada, alternating droughts and floods in the United States and India, high temperatures in Europe, and heavy casualties caused by hurricanes in the Mediterranean have also caused shocking consequences.
Reality warns people that the negative consequences of climate change are increasing with the rising temperature. At the end of November this year, world leaders will gather in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, to attend the 28th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP28). People hope that this meeting will achieve more results and create more favorable conditions for the global response to climate change. We should not only pay attention to the set ultimate goal, but also find feasible paths and effective ways to promote it.
On December 12, 2015, in order to cope with the increasingly serious climate change problem, nearly 200 parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change unanimously agreed to adopt TheParis Agreement at the Paris Climate Change Conference to make arrangements for global action to deal with climate change after 2020. At this year’s COP28 conference, all parties will conduct the first global inventory since the Paris Agreement.
On September 8th, the report on the inventory results released by the United Nations showed the progress made since the Paris Summit in 2015, and pointed out that compared with the prediction made in 2010 that the global temperature would rise by 3.7-4.8 degrees Celsius by the end of this century, the predicted temperature rise is now 2.4-2.6 degrees Celsius, but it still far exceeds the goal of controlling the temperature at 2 degrees Celsius and trying to control it within 1.5 degrees Celsius.
At the same time, the report clearly pointed out that all parties need to respond to climate change in an all-round way with higher ambition and a stronger sense of urgency. At present, global greenhouse gas emissions are still increasing, and to achieve the above goals, global greenhouse gas emissions need to be reduced by 43% compared with 2019 levels by 2030 and 60% by 2035.
On the occasion of the upcoming global climate conference, The Paper’s Critical Point combed the climate commitment actions of some major countries in the world. In response to climate change, our window of time and opportunity is shrinking rapidly.
United States of America
It has been six months since the United States resumed its contribution to the United Nations Green Climate Fund (GCF) and allocated a new $1 billion. Rich countries, including the United States, have not yet fulfilled their climate funding commitments, and developing countries are facing the fact that the speed at which funds are put in place is far behind the increasingly severe extreme weather and climate events.
According to British media reports, on October 21 this year, the negotiations on implementing the "loss and damage fund" first proposed at last year’s UN Climate Conference to help countries with fragile climate rebuild their homes reached an impasse. The United States and the European Union proposed that the World Bank should host the fund. However, questa, Chairman of the Group of 77, believes that the effectiveness of the World Bank’s decision-making is difficult to cope with the climate crisis. In addition, if the fund must operate within the legal structure of the World Bank, the wider sources of funds may be limited.
Not only is the operation of funds stagnant, but the amount of funds raised at present is still insufficient for the reconstruction of countries with fragile climate. According to American media reports on October 6, at the donor conference held in Bonn, Germany, developed countries promised to provide 9.3 billion US dollars to supplement green climate funds. However, NGOs believe that these funds are not enough to help countries with fragile climate to cope with climate change. It is worth noting that the United States is one of the few developed countries that have not provided new funds.
Nine years ago, the United States promised to provide $3 billion to the Green Climate Fund, but so far it has only injected $2 billion. Of the $11.4 billion pledged by US President Biden to developing countries, the country’s Congress only approved $1 billion. In fact, as early as the 15th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP15) held in Copenhagen in 2009, the United States and other rich countries promised to raise 100 billion dollars annually for climate action in developing countries by 2020. This goal was reaffirmed at COP21 in Paris and extended to 2025. According to reports, the current funding gap is as high as $17 billion per year.
Fossil fuel subsidies are still soaring, despite the delays in climate finance in rich countries. According to the global regulatory organization Energy Policy Tracker, the public funds flowing to fossil fuels in G20 countries will reach a record $1.4 trillion, more than double the amount before the COVID-19 outbreak in 2019.
Restricted by domestic social contradictions and inflation, it is difficult to cancel fossil fuel subsidies in the United States. In the United States, the Supreme Court, which has been dominated by the Republican Party for a long time, keeps opening the floodgates of money politics for the wealthy class. The accumulated polarization between the rich and the poor has laid the groundwork for the social phenomenon that high oil prices are often accompanied by a decline in the support rate of presidential polls. On the other hand, unlike other countries, subsidies in the United States are mainly tax relief for fossil fuel companies, that is, by providing credit and expense deduction to energy producers to reduce production costs.
Saudi Arabia
Under the pressure of decarbonization, Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude oil exporter, launched a comprehensive action to deal with climate change and reduce carbon emissions in 2021 to reduce domestic carbon emissions, including achieving "net zero" greenhouse gas emissions by 2060, planting 50 billion trees in the Middle East in the next few decades, and launching a $10.4 billion clean energy project for the region.
However, according to the Financial Times reported on July 23rd, several countries, led by Saudi Arabia, tried their best to stop G20′ s call to reduce the use of fossil fuels. At the same time, Reuters reported that Saudi Arabia and other countries opposed G20′ s proposal to triple renewable energy production capacity by 2030. Saudi Aramco announced in 2021 that it plans to increase crude oil production from 12 million barrels per day to 13 million barrels per day by 2027. According to Agence France-Presse, the total profit announced by Saudi Aramco in 2022 reached a record $161.1 billion.
Reduce the burning of fossil fuels at home, so that Saudi Arabia can free up more oil to sell abroad. In this regard, Saudi Arabia attempts to explain the rationality of this contradiction by implementing the "circular carbon economy" plan, which envisages continuing to exploit fossil fuels and adopting new technologies to capture, store or sell carbon emissions. At the same time, according to media reports, Saudi Arabia and other traditional fossil energy countries believe that it is unrealistic to tighten the "faucet" of fossil fuels immediately, and hydrocarbons such as oil, natural gas and coal will continue to become an important part of the global energy structure in the next few decades.
Saudi Arabia regards tackling climate change as a long challenge, but the International Energy Agency (IEA) released a report in May 2021, saying that if the world wants to achieve zero carbon emissions by 2050, governments and enterprises of all countries must immediately stop investing in new oil and gas projects. The unresolved issue is also the "carbon capture" technology promoted by Saudi Arabia — — The effectiveness of this technology has not been proved, and the cost of applying it to large-scale mining is too high.
"It is believed that the economy based on the exploitation and combustion of fossil fuels can be ‘ Loop ’ The idea is absurd, and the only way it works is to rely on technologies that don’t exist yet. " Matthew Archer, a researcher at the Geneva Institute, said in an interview with the media, "These measures … are full of ambitious and ambiguous language, with few specific plans and no accountability mechanism."
Japan
Coincidentally, Japan’s climate solution is also questioned. According to local media reports, on September 29th, Japan hosted the 3rd International Fuel Ammonia Conference, which focused on the theme of decarbonization of supply chain and shipping industry. This meeting is a sign of Japan’s commitment to a climate solution, but some experts believe that the solution may not meet the world timetable that urgently needs to reduce carbon emissions.
Consistent with all countries, Japan urgently needs to decarbonize the energy sector. At present, Japan plans to reduce the energy share of coal to 19% by 2030. At the meeting, the government and major industries described the vision of using ammonia (a gas composed of nitrogen and hydrogen) on a large scale in the foreseeable future, that is, reducing carbon dioxide emissions from coal-fired power plants by replacing fossil fuels with ammonia. Because ammonia combustion will not emit carbon dioxide, and the co-combustion equipment of existing coal-fired power plants in Japan does not need major transformation.
From a technical point of view, it seems feasible to burn ammonia to generate electricity. "Japan Times" reported on October 22nd that JERA, Japan’s largest power company, is testing the 20:80 ammonia-coal co-combustion ratio at Binan Thermal Power Station in Aichi Prefecture, Japan. It is reported that JERA’s goal is to gradually increase the proportion of ammonia-coal mixed combustion and realize 100% ammonia combustion by 2050.
However, with the government and enterprises eager to establish an ammonia fuel supply chain on a global scale, experts began to question the feasibility of ammonia as a decarbonization solution in Japan. Although ammonia will not emit carbon dioxide when it is fully burned, fossil fuel is an essential raw material for ammonia production.
In this regard, many Japanese power companies, including Mitsui & Co., Ltd., are exploring a new mode of ammonia production, that is, using fossil fuels to produce ammonia, and at the same time capturing 80%-90% of carbon emissions through CCS technology. Considering the high price and poor performance of CCS technology at present, some ongoing ammonia synthesis projects focus on developing technologies to produce ammonia through renewable energy. However, Motoichi Kato, deputy secretary-general of Japan Clean Fuel Ammonia Association (CFAA), told the media that all ammonia imported from Japan is still produced by traditional production methods, and the new ammonia production technology has not yet covered the whole world.
In addition to concerns about carbon emissions caused by ammonia production procedures, experts also said that producing such a large amount of ammonia may pollute the air and water quality. According to the Japan Times, Japan is expected to need 3 million tons of ammonia by 2030 and 30 million tons by 2050. Climate Integrate, an independent climate policy think tank in Japan, warned that fixing nitrogen from the atmosphere to produce ammonia may further disrupt the balance of the global nitrogen cycle. In addition, the increase of nitrogen will lead to eutrophication of marine ecosystem, as well as air pollution and groundwater pollution.
South Korea
Compared with the above countries, South Korea has not performed well in dealing with climate change in recent years. According to the report updated by Climate Action Tracker on July 17, 2023, the overall rating of South Korea’s actions to deal with climate change is classified as "seriously inadequate". Furthermore, South Korea’s climate policy and energy sector planning still lack the necessary speed and rigor, and can not embark on the road that conforms to the temperature limit of 1.5°C in the Paris Agreement.
After the change of government in South Korea in 2022, the country’s climate policy changed, deviating from the 100% renewable energy target previously set by the government. The new president Yin Xiyue publicly stated that the target was "too expensive". According to media reports, on March 21st this year, South Korea announced that it would lower the greenhouse gas emission target of the industrial sector in 2030. According to the plan, the Korean industrial sector is required to reduce carbon emissions by 11.4% compared with 2018 levels by 2030, while the emission reduction target set by the end of 2021 is 14.5%.
According to the plan, the carbon emission gap caused by the adjustment will be made up by increasing emission reduction overseas and replacing traditional energy with more renewable energy. However, given that South Korea has reneged on its climate commitments, the way to make up for the plan is still in doubt. According to the Climate Action Tracking Agency, in April 2021, South Korea announced at the leaders’ climate summit hosted by the United States that it would immediately stop providing financing for overseas coal projects. Just one month later, it announced the exception of renovation and approval of related projects.
On the other hand, Yin Xiyue decided to revive the nuclear power plan, overturning the previous president’s reform of phasing out nuclear power. It is reported that the Korean government promulgated the tenth power plan in January 2023, aiming at using nuclear energy to realize national decarbonization. Contrary to the original goal of limiting the proportion of nuclear energy to 30% by 2030, the latest goal is to increase the proportion of nuclear energy use to 34.6%.
In January 2012, South Korea promulgated the Renewable Energy Portfolio Standard (RPS). According to the International Energy Agency, the plan aims to expand the use of renewable energy and make it a promising market competitor. To this end, the 13 largest Korean power companies are required to increase the use of renewable energy to 14.5% and 17% in 2023 and 2024 respectively, and to reach 25% after 2026. However, according to Yonhap News Agency’s report on January 13th, 2023, the South Korean government lowered the RPS target for this year and next to 13% and 13.5% respectively, and the final goal was postponed until after 2030.
Canada
Countries that have failed to say what they must do in climate action include Canada. According to the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC), since 1990, the country has formulated nine climate plans, but failed to achieve the goals.
Even though Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau released a comprehensive emission reduction plan for 2030 on March 29th, 2022, listing a series of actions that the country will take to reduce climate pollution to 40% to 45% lower than the 2005 level by the end of this century, the plan still has many defects.
For example, the plan does not provide enough funds to help automobile suppliers increase the sales of electric vehicles according to the government’s goals. Secondly, there are criticisms that the goal is to reduce the climate pollution of the energy industry without limiting production, which will require fossil fuel companies to make great improvements in carbon capture technology.
In addition, a report on April 24th said that a recent study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences showed that the Canadian government and enterprises seriously underestimated the current domestic carbon emissions.
Britain
Backward climate action may also affect the activity of other countries in the field of climate governance. According to media reports on September 20th, British Prime Minister Sunak may dilute Britain’s plan to deal with climate change, including postponing the ban on the sale of new gasoline and diesel vehicles originally scheduled to take effect in 2030, greatly weakening the plan to phase out gas boilers by 2035, and not updating the energy efficiency regulations for housing construction.
Sunak said that he is still committed to the legally binding goal of achieving net zero emissions by 2050. At the same time, he also said that Britain can slow down its progress in achieving this goal because Britain is "far ahead of all other countries in the world." However, considering the national election in 2024, Reuters in the United Kingdom believes that Sunak leaked the news of reducing the green policy in order to gain the support of voters who are troubled by high inflation and stagnant economic growth.
Britain is the first country to set a legally binding "net zero" goal in 2050. Since 1990, with the closure of coal-fired power plants and the rise of offshore wind power, the country’s carbon emissions have dropped by nearly 50%. However, according to media reports on September 21st, the British government’s independent climate adviser said that Britain still has some shortcomings in achieving its climate goals, and diluting its plan to deal with climate change may further weaken its ability to fulfill its legal commitments.